Gay Marriage Opinion Poll

Results of a recent Times/CBS poll (see full results at http://documents.nytimes.com/new-york-times-cbs-news-poll-obama-s-100th-day-in-office/page/16#p=16)

Answer to the question:
Which comes closest to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry OR gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry OR there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?

2nd week of March, 2004:
22% favor gay marriage; 33% favor gay unions; 40% favor no recognition

3rd week of April, 2009:
42% favor gay marriage; 25% favor gay unions; 28% favor no recognition

Interesting points:

(1) A change in 20% in favor of gay marriage. In opinion poll language, this is very large. In general, it takes a long time for societal opinion to change this much on any big issue.

“Big issue” meaning a value issue, as opposed to rating the momentary performance of a particular politician, for example.

[Five years represent some change in terms of births and deaths, but not much. Certainly nowhere near 20% of the population. About .88% of the population dies annually, meaning 4.4% in 5 years. Of course, we cannot assume that everyone who died in 2004-2009 was against gay marriage either, nor that 100% of those who came of age in that time are for it. So … at the very least, we’re seeing a 16% change in opinion among living people.]

(2) Also, a 12% decrease of those who favor no recognition. In a way, I think that the 12% is a more interesting group.

After all, in my case, there is no “minority” group in society for whom I now favor full equal rights that at some point in my life I didn’t. (I’m racking my brain, but … no … I still feel basically the same about children, mentally challenged people, religious groups, racial groups, you name it.) So I am, and will remain, fascinated and intrigued by people who go through this change at some point in their lives. It is admirable, in some ways, but confusing too.

(3) Only a 7% change in opinions on civil unions. For me, this confirms my opinion that this is basically a transitory stage. A view that includes :

a) anti-marriage advocates looking to appease the other side and forestall total change

(b) pro-marriage advocates that feel progress is best achieved through pragmatic compromise … Perhaps this includes President Obama, who was once pro-gay-marriage. He did support gay marriage in 1996: http://www.windycitymediagroup.com/gay/lesbian/news/ARTICLE.php?AID=20229

(c) poll respondents who are “get along” folks and tend to support whatever they imagine to be a compromise position.

In any case, this is all heartening news :-) And hardly the only poll that shows it. Search the net. A majority of people under 40 are now pro-gay-marriage, meaning that basically there is no turning back. (It’s very unlikely that many of those people will regress to an anti-gay view.) Onward!